Kyungmo Ahn, a professor at the Korean National Defense University, argues that North Korea has shifted its strategy from bandwagoning for threat mitigation to an "internal balancing strategy" centered on military self-reliance and nuclear development. He contends that this shift presents an unprecedented opportunity for the Kim regime, reinforced by the strengthening of DPRK-China-Russia cooperation amid the growing multipolarity of the global order. Ahn notes that, given the divergent interests and power asymmetry among the three nations, this trilateral relationship functions more as a sum ...

Special Report

• Kyungmo AHN
• December 20, 2024

Jaewoo Jun, an associate research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, observes that the recent partnership between North Korea and Russia reflects both nations' attempts to reduce their asymmetric dependence on China. He also notes that Beijing has adopted a notably more passive stance toward this relationship compared to the past. However, Jun explains that despite closer ties between Moscow and Pyongyang, China's strategic leverage over Russia makes it unlikely that the DPRK-Russia alliance will progress significantly beyond its current state.

Special Report

• Jaewoo JUN
• December 13, 2024

Gu Ho Eom, a professor at Hanyang University, assesses that while the consolidation of a North Korea-China-Russia partnership may temporarily appear to be strengthening, the structural deficiencies in each bilateral relations within the triangle render it unlikely for the trilateral alliance to institutionalize beyond a level allowing for micro-level policy coordination. Eom further predicts that the pace of North Korea-Russia relationship and the trajectory of the North Korea-China-Russia alliance will be influenced by developments such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the outcomes of U.S.-North...

Special Report

• Gu Ho EOM
• December 13, 2024