Ho Ryung Lee, Director of the Security and Strategy Center at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, notes that North Korea's recent strategy of "complex provocation" integrates military actions with gray zone tactics like the trash balloon campaigns. This strategy aims to enhance the effectiveness of nuclear coercion, increase public anxiety in South Korea, and strengthen internal control within North Korea. Lee predicts that in the latter half of 2024, North Korea will emphasize the repetitiveness, simultaneity, and persistence of these complex provocations to sustain the fatigue of the South Korean military and the anxiety of its citizens, rather than drastically escalating tensions on the Peninsula.

Hyeong Jung Park, Emeritus Research Fellow of Korea Institute for National Unification, highlights that the latest plenary meeting of the Workers' Party revealed limited information on DPRK’s foreign policy direction, attributing to Pyongyang's indecision amidst the prolonged stalemate in Northeast Asia. With significant uncertainties such as the strengthening ROK-U.S.-Japan security cooperation and the upcoming U.S. presidential election, Park anticipates that North Korea will continue to adopt a hardline policy to induce crises on the Korean Peninsula. This strategy aims to deteriorate the security environment in favor of the regime while fostering internal polarization among key stakeholders in the region concerning their respective DPRK policies.

Kyung-young Chung (Professor, Hanyang University) and Zmire Zeljana (Lecturer, Hanyang University) predict a critical scenario involving simultaneous conflicts in Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula. To prepare, they advocate for a more structured network and role division among South Korea, the United States, and Japan. They also recommend that South Korea bolster its defense posture through nuclear armament, transfer of Operational Control, and agreements on the strategic flexibility of United States Forces Korea (USFK).