In July 2024, North Korea’s provinces of North Pyongan, Ryanggang, and Chagang experienced record-breaking rainfall. In Sinuiju city and Uiju county alone, 5,000 residents were trapped, and 3,000 hectares of farmland were submerged. The affected regions were designated as “special-level disaster emergency areas,” with North Korea implementing comprehensive recovery measures (KCNA 8/3/2024). Kim Jong Un has reportedly made a show of leading rescue operations without wearing a life vest. While this year’s flooding presents a serious challenge on its own, the more pressing concern is the recurring and worsening damage from natural disasters that North Korea faces annually.

According to EM-DAT data from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at the University of Louvain in Belgium, North Korea experienced 16 large-scale natural disasters between 2012 and 2021, eight of which were floods. Notably, North Korean media and international organizations provided detailed figures, reporting 528 people dead or missing due to torrential rains in July 2012 and 569 dead or missing following floods in late August 2016. The “World Disasters Report 2015” by the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC) noted that 612,141 people died from natural disasters in North Korea during that period, representing 28.8% of total disaster-related deaths worldwide. This underscores the critical crises that the state faces, with significant human losses and extensive damage to homes and farmland.

Since Kim Jong Un assumed power, he has recognized the severe economic and social impacts of natural disasters and has called for proactive measures to address them. He places particular emphasis on developing science and technology to mitigate the country’s vulnerabilities, especially through the modernization of the hydrometeorological sector (KCNA 8/12/2024). These initiatives, aimed at actively responding to natural disasters, can not only help safeguard lives and property but can also be leveraged to boost agricultural production and enhance military capabilities.

North Korea has also been taking active institutional measures to improve disaster response by restructuring relevant organizations. For instance, it adopted the Disaster Prevention, Rescue and Recovery Act as Decree 76 of the Standing Committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly on June 27, 2014. Before this legislation, authority and responsibility for disaster management were fragmented and dependent on the type of disaster. The new law unified these regulations and adopted the universal concept of the “Four Phases of Emergency Management”—mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery.

Following the large-scale flood damage in 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic, North Korea amended this law twice, expanding the scope and categories of natural disasters, specifying disaster classifications, and systematizing the disaster management process. It also established the National Emergency Disaster Prevention Measure Committee as the central authority for disaster management, developing action plans and clarifying responsibilities. Under this system, North Korea conducts land management campaigns every fall and spring, aimed at improving rivers, streams, and roads to prevent natural disasters (KCNA 11/6/2024). In fact, their efforts in river and stream improvement have received some international recognition for yielding positive outcomes.

Nevertheless, North Korea’s overall disaster response capability remains profoundly insufficient. According to the INFORM Risk Index, North Korea ranks 65th out of 191 countries in terms of overall risk (European Commission).[1] Although this represents some improvement compared to the past, one critical category—lack of coping capacity—has actually worsened. Despite the regime’s proactive efforts to address disasters through new legislation and organizational reforms, as mentioned earlier, these initiatives have yet to produce significant or meaningful policy outcomes in practice.

Addressing natural disasters is a critical challenge for the Kim regime, as these events not only cause immediate harm to the North Korean people and their society but also have far-reaching negative effects on the social system. In the past, excessive deforestation for energy purposes devastated the country’s forests. As a result, heavy rainfall now often leads to severe flooding and landslides, inflicting extreme damage on farmlands and housing. Flooded farmlands, in turn, contribute to food shortages, worsening daily life for citizens and potentially fueling dissatisfaction with Kim Jong Un’s leadership.

In response to mounting public discontent over the recent flood management, Kim reportedly replaced the Minister of Social Security along with several party cadres in North Pyongan and Chagang provinces, holding them accountable for inadequate preparation ahead of the crisis. This move appears to be an attempt to shift responsibility onto regional leaders for the poor disaster response. Simultaneously, Kim seeks to build an image of a caring leader by personally visiting disaster sites and leading recovery efforts. However, the repeated disasters and the regime’s lack of capacity to respond effectively will only serve to highlight the inadequacies of the party, ultimately deepening public dissatisfaction and eroding trust in both the system and Kim Jong Un’s leadership.

Since no country can fully prevent natural disasters in the current era of climate crisis, the key lies in how effectively a nation mitigates and prepares for the damage, and how quickly it recovers afterward. However, North Korea’s response to recent flood damage reveals its continued reliance on mass mobilization to address problems on a case-by-case basis, rather than adopting a systematic restoration process guided by a well-organized framework.

North Korea’s independent efforts to strengthen its disaster response capabilities clearly demonstrate their limitations. Ultimately, cooperation with the international community remains an inevitable policy option for the regime. As highlighted in its Voluntary National Review (VNR), North Korea is actively seeking support and collaboration from the global community to enhance its adaptability to climate change. In alignment with the international adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, North Korea also contributed by submitting its National Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction 2019-2030.

Since the end of last year, with North Korea’s declaration of the “Two Hostile States [Koreas] at War” rhetoric, tensions on the Korean Peninsula have been escalating. However, inter-Korean disaster cooperation could serve as a valuable starting point for resuming dialogue and exchanges between the two Koreas. In the recent Liberation Day speech, President Yoon Suk Yeol announced the “August 15 Unification Doctrine,” which included a proposal to establish an “Inter-Korean Working Group” to address issues such as “disaster and climate-change responses” (Office of the President 2024).

In anticipation of renewed inter-Korean dialogue, the creation of a joint climate forecast warning system to mitigate disaster damage could be an effective step forward. This agenda aligns with Kim Jong Un’s consistent emphasis on the modernization of the hydrometeorological sector to reduce damage from natural disasters. For North Korea to minimize yearly disaster-related damage and ensure the safety of its people, accepting South Korea’s cooperation proposal would be a practical and necessary move.

References

European Commission. n.a. “INFORM Country Risk Profile – Korea DPR.” https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index/INFORM-Risk/Country-Risk-Profile

International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC). 2015. “World Disasters Report 2015: Focus on local actors, the key to humanitarian effectiveness.” https://www.ifrc.org/sites/default/files/World-Disasters-Report-2015_en.pdf

Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). 2024. “Session of Permanent Commission of SPA Standing Committee of DPRK Held.” September 21.

______. 2024. “Western Region of DPRK Renders Aids to Flood Victims.” August 3.

______. 2024. “Efforts Made to Ensure Prompt and Correct Weather Forecast.” August 12.

Office of the President. 2024. “Address by President Yoon Suk Yeol on the 79th Liberation Day.” Speeches and Remarks. August 15. https://eng.president.go.kr/speeches/YhZsGrfN

[1] The INFORM Risk Index is an annual assessment released by the European Commission’s Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre (DRMKC) that evaluates the disaster risk levels of countries based on three criteria: Hazard & Exposure, Vulnerability, and Lack of Coping Capacity.

■ Yongwoo NA is the Director of North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU).

■ Translated and edited by: Jisoo Park, Research Associate
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