The unification environment facing the Korean Peninsula is gloomy. North Korea defined the Republic of Korea as a hostile nation at engagement, not homogeneous relations. The rift between the liberal and conservative camps in South Korea is deepening. South-North Korean relations are at a stalemate. South Korea’s economic recession is not recovering, and North Korea's economy is exacerbating. The confrontation between the blocs of North Korea-China-Russia vs. South Korea-U.S.-Japan symbolizing the emergence of a new Cold War causes instability in the region. The U.S.-China hegemony rivalry is intensifying. Cynicism about Korean unification is prevalent.

A different approach to Korean unification is required. The root of all these problems originates from the division of the Korean Peninsula. If a unified Korea is achieved, the risk of war will disappear, explosive economic growth will be possible, and we will be able to pursue peace and co-prosperity on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia.

Under a new strategic awareness of unification, the study will examine why unification is necessary. It will then explore the meaning of Korean unification in terms of the history of civilization and a vision for a unified Korea. The study would like to propose strategies for building a unified Korea from government, civilian, and international cooperation perspectives.

I. Inevitability and Need of Korean Unification

There are many reasons why Korean unification is inevitable and necessary. First, stakeholders directly or indirectly involved in dividing the Korean Peninsula have a moral obligation to support unification. Regardless of the will of the Korean people, it was divided as a victim of power politics among great powers. The Korean Peninsula would not have been divided if it had not been under Japanese colonial rule, if the United States and the Soviet Union had not divided the Korean Peninsula militarily in order to receive the surrender of the Japanese forces in Korea, and if the Chinese forces had not intervened when the ROK Army advanced to the Yalu River during the Korean War. How painful has been the psychological trauma, economic cost, security tension, and political instability that Korean people have been experiencing as a result of the division? Stakeholders have a historical mission and moral obligation to cooperate and support Korean unification to end such suffering.

Second, the reason for pursuing reunification is to implement humanitarianism. Ten million separated families, 82,000 ROK prisoners of war, 34,000 North Korean escapees, and other separated families should be allowed to live together.

Third, we need to fundamentally prevent war on the Korean Peninsula. As long as the North and the South continue to move toward tit-for-tat relations, it cannot be ruled out that another Korean War will not break out. Unification is imperative to prevent a catastrophic war much worse than the Korean War, in which 4.46 million people casualties resulted.

Figure 1. Casualties of the Korean War

*Source: Dong-chan Park, 2014. The Korean War from Statistics. Seoul: Institute for Military History, MND.

Fourth, unification is necessary to build an economic powerhouse. South Korea, the world’s 10th largest economy in 2021, declined to 13th in 2023 and may fall to 30th in 20 years due to the population cliff and deteriorating growth rate. Goldman Sachs predicts that a unified Korea could become the third largest economic power in the world by 2050, with a GDP surpassing those of Germany and Japan. Domestic economics would achieve vitalization due to the expansion of the population to 80 million people and the multiplier effect between North Korea’s labor force and mineral wealth and South Korea’s advanced technology and capital (Goldman Sachs 2009).

Fifth, the strategic benefits of unification are overwhelmingly more significant than the costs of division and unification combined. The loss of life, insecurity, disadvantage, loss, and risk caused by division is unimaginably significant. It is difficult to bear the criticism that the North-South Koreans are foolish people who waste their national energy to hate each other. South Korea spends 2.7 percent of its GDP and 10 percent of its national budget on defense, while North Korea spends 25 percent of its GDP and 16 percent of its national budget on defense (CIA 2024). Multinational corporations are reluctant to invest in South Korea due to the so-called “Korea Discount” and the possibility of armed conflict. The increase in trade transportation costs and the additional costs from the detour flight routes are also significant. In addition, as long as the Korean Peninsula is divided, conflicts and confrontations between countries in Northeast Asia will continue.

In the first year after unification, the cost of system integration and social security will range from 42.3 billion dollars to 191 billion dollars, and raising North Korea’s standard of living to that of South Korea will cost 62 billion to 1.7 trillion dollars (Shin 2011). This is an astronomical cost of unification. Though the cost of unification appears serious, if North Korea becomes a normal country or the two Koreas are unified, it will be able to benefit from development assistance from international financial organizations such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Asia Development Bank, and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. Considering the potential profits from developing North Korea’s vast resources, the cost of unification is not ultimately a major concern.

In the event of achieving a unified Korea, the benefit from economies of scale due to North and South Korea’s integration and the expansion of the market would be tremendous, along with the transformation of North Korea’s civil economy from reducing its heavy defense expenditure. Korean national self-respect and international status will become incredibly high. Not only the Korean people, but also the neighboring countries, will benefit from Korean unification. The U.S. will see the expansion of liberal democracy and a free market economy in the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. China will vitalize economic exchange, cooperation with a unified Korea, and cultural exchange. Japan, which will not receive any further nuclear or missile threats from the Peninsula, can participate in the northern part development of the Peninsula and explore new markets. Russia will enable a unified Korea to proactively develop Far East Russia and boost Korean tourism.

Rigorous economic, cultural, and military cooperation among key actor states in Northeast Asia could facilitate the formation of a regional economic and security community. Due to the superior benefits of Korean unification over the costs of division and unification combined, Korean unification is a beneficial investment.

Finally, the South Korean people, who are much wealthier than the North Korean people in all aspects, including gross national income (GNI), have a duty to help their brotherhood in North Korea. Thanks to the South Korean people’s innovation and dedication, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) changed South Korea’s status from a developing country to a developed country on July 2, 2021. South Korea is the only country that joined this group since World War II (Radio Korea News 2021). The Republic of Korea could build a competitive, liberal, democratic, digital-led country and a soft-power K-culture country within eight decades after liberation. South Korean people have a mission to share these fortunes with North Korean people who suffer human rights violations and survival rights.

Figure 2. Ratio of South-North Korea’s National Power

*Source: The ROK Ministry of National Defense.2022. 2022 Defense White Paper. Seoul: ROK MND.; CIA. 2024. The World Factbook 2024-2025. Washington, D.C.: CIA, June.; Global Firepower. 2024. “2024 World Military Strength Rankings,” https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php#goo%20le%20vignette. (Accessed, Oct 1); IISS. 2024. 2024-2025 Military Balance. London: Routledge Taylor & Francis Group.; and ROK Defense Expenditure 59 trillion 40 billion won ($ 45 billion) in 2024.

Indeed, the emergence of a unified Korea will transform the Korean Peninsula, which has a history of strife and conflict, into the epicenter of peace, cooperation, and common prosperity in the region.

II. Significance of Civilizational History and A Vision for a Unified Korea

The achievement of a unified Korea has a civilizational significance. It will mark the end of the Cold War in Northeast Asia. In addition, the unification of the Korean Peninsula, which will result in strategic cooperation between the U.S. and China, will serve as an opportunity for the U.S. and China to transform from a hegemony rivalry to a co-evolutionary relationship. Suppose the two Koreas, which have been ideologically opposed, are unified. In that case, it will send a message to failed countries that are experiencing civil wars or dictators, thereby contributing to world peace. In addition, the unification of the Korean Peninsula, where Western civilization and Eastern civilization converge, will serve as an opportunity to open up a global civilized community.

Korean people dream of building a new unified Korea, not just the integration of the divided North and South Korean territories. We want to build a nation that embodies the nation’s founding spirit, the idea of ‘Hongik Ingan,’ all human beings to benefit humanity worldwide. It is a country that guarantees liberal democracy, a market economy, human rights, the rule of law, freedom of religion and speech, and the pursuit of happiness. The diplomacy of a unified Korea promotes alliance with the United States and multilateral cooperation in Northeast Asia. The defense of a unified Korea has the strategy of deterrence and a strong military. The economy of a unified Korea pursues a morally symbiotic market economy of freedom, equality, and mutual benefit. As a digital, AI, science, and technology powerhouse, a unified Korea will be reborn as a logistics and financial hub.

However, the reality of the divided Korean Peninsula does not meet the conditions for achieving unification. South Korea is concerned about an armed invasion by North Korea. North Korea is concerned about unification by absorption from South Korea, which has an overwhelming superiority in national power. Neighboring countries are concerned about security instability and uncertainty in the political ideology of a unified Korea during the unification process. They are burdened with humanitarian assistance and economic aid in the event of North Korean regime transformation and inter-Korean integration. The United States and China are concerned that hostile forces will emerge when the Korean Peninsula is unified under the leadership of the other. A concerted effort to dispel these concerns is required to push for unification.

III. Unification Strategy and Unification Activities at the Government, Civilian, and International Levels

The unification of the Korean Peninsula aims for peaceful unification, neither by force nor by absorption. We pursue a plan to unify the civilized community that encompasses the national community. As a strategic framework for promoting unification, we pursue unification in three dimensions: government, civilian, and international. We will promote unification at functional, neo-functional, and institutional levels. We attempt to institutionalize it as an eight-province federal state through economic exchange and cooperation, social, cultural, and educational exchanges, military confidence-building, and system integration. At the civilian level, we will conduct activities to restore national homogeneity and unification of civil movements. Issues to be resolved in the unification process include North Korean human rights, North Korean denuclearization, the transition from an unstable armistice structure to an enduring peace regime, and the future of the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) and the United Nations Command. It conducts unification diplomacy toward neighboring countries and international organizations such as the United Nations (Chung 2020).

In building a unified Korea, we must never allow North Korea to unify the divided Korea militarily. We will strengthen our diplomatic and security capabilities to conduct early counter-offensive operations, win the war in the event of North Korea’s invasion, and achieve a free and democratic unification.

We will implement the agreements reached between the high-level and top leaders of the South and the North. The National Assembly will have to ratify the Basic Agreement on South-North Reconciliation, Non-aggression, and Exchange and Cooperation in 1992, the June 15 Joint Declaration in 2000, the October 4 Summit Declaration in 2007, the April 27 Panmunjom Joint Declaration, and the September 19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration in 2018. It will resume employment of the Kaesong Industrial Complex, Mt. Kumgang Tourism, and the North-South Railways and Roads of the connected Western and Eastern Corridors. We will promote exchanges between North Korean support non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and local governments and North-South military confidence-building, operational arms control, and structural arms control.

At the civilian level, campaigns to restore national homogeneity must be launched. Culture, art, sports, and education exchanges, exchanges between scholars, visits to historical sites, joint excavation of the Taebong-guk Cheorwon Fortress site in the DMZ, and the co-authoring of modern Korean history are examples. We will make every effort to provide humanitarian aid that can touch the hearts and minds of North Korean people, including food aid, support for infants and children, medical assistance, water and sanitation projects, fertilizer support, noodle factory support, agricultural development projects such as seed potato production, tree planting, forest pest eradication, and flood recovery support.

In particular, the Unification Civil Movement will be launched. Just as the March 1st Independence Movement played a decisive role in liberating the country from Japanese oppression, we will launch a movement of citizens for unification that transcends political parties and religions to achieve unification consensus.

IV. Strategy to respond to North Korea’s Invasion

North Korea defined South Korea as a hostile state at war, not as a fratricidal country. North Korea proclaimed that they abandoned unification (Korean Central News Agency 2023). However, North Korea has the intention of unifying the divided Korea by tactical nuclear weapons preemptive strike. North Korea’s armed forces include a standing army of 1.28 million, 7.62 million mobilized troops, 40 to 60 nuclear weapons, 1,200 ballistic missiles, including hypersonic missiles, as well as special warfare, chemical and biological, cyber-electronic warfare capability, and submarine ballistic missiles (SLBMs) (ROK Ministry of National Defense 2022).

From September 25 to October 9, 2022, North Korea massively deployed tactical nuclear weapons operating units, long-range artillery units, and air force squadrons to conduct large-scale command drills by the North Korean People’s Army (KPA) in order to occupy South Korea (BBC News Korea 2022). On August 29, 2023, Kim Jong Un visited the General Staff which was conducting KPA command exercises. He reviewed "The operational plans of the General Staff, including the plan for the use of frontline and strategic reserve artillery in the event of war, for the formation of an enemy front, and for the breakdown of overseas intervention,” which would “mobilize all tactical nuclear capabilities to form a front with the South, prevent reinforcements from the U.S. and the United Nations Rear Command in Japan, seize the initiative in the war, and occupy the entire territory of the southern Peninsula (JoongAng Ilbo 2023).”

North Korea signed the DPRK-PRC Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance in 1961, which guarantees China’s automatic intervention in wartime, and the DPRK-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty in July 2024, which agreed to Russia’s military intervention in the event of an emergency.

South Korea will never tolerate North Korea’s unification by force. If North Korea invades again, we will realize a free and unified Korea through early counter-offensive operations and victory in military operations by the world’s fifth-largest overwhelming conventional power, ROK-U.S. integrated extended deterrence strategy, and the determination of 52 million South Korean people to defend prosperous and free Korea. To this end, building a readiness posture for an all-out war is necessary. The President, as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, needs to establish a war guidance system, build a ROK-led warfighting system through the transition of wartime operational control, foster the powerful ROK-U.S. combined forces skilled in strategy, operational art, and tactics, and continuously conduct realistic mobilization and civil defense drills (Chung 2020; Chung and Zmire 2024). Such a readiness for an all-out war is the way to prevent war and realize victory and a free and unified Korea with minimum sacrifice in the event of an emergency.

V. International Cooperation for a Unified Korea

Under the National Security Office for President, the Korean Peninsula International Cooperation Platform will be established and operated. Representatives of the ruling and opposition parties in the National Assembly, policymakers and experts in foreign affairs, unification, and defense, officials of the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council and the Overseas Koreans Agency, representatives of North Korean escapees and regional overseas Koreans, experts on the Korean Peninsula from the United States, China, Japan, and Russia will be organized to promote the August 15 Unification Doctrine: Vision, strategy, and action plan for the Unified Republic of Korea of freedom, peace, and prosperity. The Platform will develop strategies for international cooperation and solidarity, define the roles of unification for neighboring countries and regions, support unification diplomacy, expand access to information for North Korean people, and improve North Korean humanitarian assistance and human rights (Ministry of Unification 2024). To gain the sympathy and support of the international community, we will carry out the international unification movement in solidarity with overseas Koreans and global citizens.

We will gradually transform the armistice structure into a peace regime. The first stage normalizes the unstable armistice structure. Both North Korea, which withdrew, and the Chinese delegation, recalled in 1994, should return to the Military Armistice Commission at Panmunjom to supervise the implementation of the Armistice Agreement with the United Nations Command. In the second stage, the two Koreas, the United States, and China will sign the Korean Peninsula peace treaty to dissolve hostile relations and war and restore a state of peace, renounce mutual non-aggression and the use of force, respect the boundary line and transform the DMZ into a peace zone. The Military Armistice Commission will be transformed into the International Peace Supervisory Commission, and the USFK will be adjusted from managing the North Korean threat to playing a peacekeeping and regional stabilizer role.

VI. Neighboring Countries’ Perception and Roles in the Korean Unification

Examining the perception and roles of neighboring countries that directly or indirectly intervened in the division of the Korean Peninsula is meaningful for building a unified Korea.

The United States has a mission to recognize the fallacy of the Katsura-Taft Treaty and the division of the 38th parallel and resolve the division. In a joint statement commemorating the 70th anniversary of the ROK-U.S. alliance in 2023, President Yoon Suk-yeol and President Joseph Biden affirmed that “the two Presidents are committed to building a better future for all Korean people and support a unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace (The White House 2023).” The U.S. recognizes that the unification of the Korean Peninsula contributes to regional stability and shared prosperity. The U.S. will never allow North Korea to unify the Peninsula by force. The U.S. will create conditions for peaceful unification, promote denuclearization and peace negotiations between the two Koreas, the United States and China, and carry out humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations (Wilson and Park 2023).

Through the 2014 ROK-China summit between President Park Geun-hye and President Xi Jinping, President Xi proclaimed that “China supports the two Koreas to improve relations through dialogue, reconciliation, and cooperation, respects the Korean people’s aspirations for the peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula, and ultimately supports the peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula (The Christian Newspaper 2014).” Philosophical solidarity between the Community of Human Destiny and the thought of ‘Hongik Ingan,' which means that all human beings should benefit humanity worldwide, is possible. China’s role in unification is to promote the signing of the Korean Peninsula Peace Treaty through strategic cooperation with the U.S. and the two Koreas, pursue economic cooperation between China and the two Koreas, and promote cultural exchanges (Chen and Lee 2023).

Japan believes a unified Korea should be nuclear-free and peaceful, and supports ROK-led reunification that shares universal values. Japan is concerned about a potential security crisis in the process of unification. In the “Action Plan for a New Partnership between South Korea and Japan in the 21st Century” between President Kim Dae-Jung and Japanese Prime Minister Obuchi Keijo in 1998, they declared, “We affirm the importance of South-North dialogue for cooperation in improving inter-Korean relations and maintaining peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, as well as for easing tensions and establishing permanent peace on the Korean peninsula, and share the same understanding of the importance of establishing a new peace regime through the two Koreas, and the U.S.-China four-party talks (Chosun Ilbo 1998).” Japan is in the position of jointly responding to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats. If North Korea and Japan normalize diplomatic relations, Japan could provide $10 billion in claims. Japan will carry out humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations and seek the return of 6,839 Japanese out of the 93,340 repatriates in North Korea from 1959 to 1984 (Kwon and Izumi 2023).

Russia’s position is that when the Korean Peninsula is unified, it will significantly contribute to mutual economic interests. President Moon Jae-in and President Vladimir Putin declared in a joint declaration at the Korea-Russia summit in 2018, “They welcome the adoption of the Panmunjom Declaration for peace, prosperity, and reunification of the Korean Peninsula and will continue their joint efforts to achieve the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and secure lasting peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia (Yonhap News Agency 2018).” Economic cooperation between the two Koreas and Russia, as well as the connection of the Trans-Korean Railway (TKR) and the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR), along with the construction of power and gas pipelines, will provide the two Koreas with a stable supply of energy, and a unified Korea will be able to participate more actively in the development of Far Eastern Russia. Russia estimates that the presence of the USFK is necessary to check Chinese expansionism and Japanese militarism. With the advent of a unified Korea, multilateral security cooperation should be established to prevent instability in the region. Public diplomacy, such as cultural and academic exchanges, is urgently needed (Lee and Golubeva 2023).

In the meantime, unification diplomacy with international organizations such as the United Nations should be carried out. The United Nations has made efforts to ease tensions and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula, along with the foundation of the Republic of Korea. On August 18, 2023 at Camp David Summit, the leaders of the ROK, the United States, and Japan declared their support for “a unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace (The White House 2023),” which is the fruit of the ROK’s unification diplomacy. In addition, unification diplomacy toward the World Bank, ADB, IMF, AIIB, ASEAN Regional Forum, and G20 is necessary.

VII. Conclusion

As the Korean people’s aspiration, unification is one of the greatest national security strategies the Republic of Korea should pursue. This study recommends policies for South Korea, North Korea, and the international community to build a unified Korea. In the domestic politics of South Korea, the politics of unity, win-win, and governance should be carried out in all fields. South Korean people should cherish and nurture values such as liberal democracy, free market economy, human rights, and the rule of law. Then, South Korean people will be able to embrace North Korean people who have taken a different path in the event of a new unified Korea.

At the same time, North Korea defined the ROK as a hostile state at war that must be overthrown, and we cannot only call for peace at a time when North Korea’s nuclear missiles threaten our national survival. If North Korea conducts preemptive strikes with tactical nuclear warheads delivered by hypersonic missiles against South Korea’s metropolitan within one minute, there will be no way to cope with it. Along with concretizing an integrated extended deterrence strategy, the ROK and the U.S. need to agree with the automatic deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear warheads to the Korean theater if the ROK-U.S. combined defense readiness condition will be escalated due to the increasing tensions on the Korean Peninsula. South Korean people wonder why the U.S. is reluctant to deploy tactical nuclear arsenals to the Korean theater under the existential nuclear threat from North Korea despite the U.S. deploying 100 new B61-12 tactical nuclear warheads to five member states of NATO, including Germany, Luxemburg, Belgium, Italy, and Türkiye. If that is not possible, South Korea will have no choice but to arm itself with nuclear weapons. If South Korea becomes nuclear-armed, we will be able to prevent catastrophic nuclear war on the Peninsula by Mutual Assurance Destruction (MAD). The situation might develop in which North Korea can no longer threaten with nuclear weapons, and conditions will be created for the establishment of a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula by advancing to nuclear disarmament and denuclearization.

Second, North Korean authorities need to receive humanitarian aid from the South. North and South Koreans also need to resume inter-Korean economic and social-cultural exchange and cooperation, along with political and military dialogues for confidence-building measures.

Third, in terms of international cooperation, the study proposes the launch of the Korean Peninsula International Cooperation Platform, which is already envisioned by the ROK government. It will embody the vision and strategy for a unified Korea, develop the roles of unification between the United States, China, and Russia, and support unification diplomacy, North Korean human rights and humanitarian aid, and the global citizen unification movement.

Over the past 80 years after the division of the Peninsula, the people of the Republic of Korea have built a free and prosperous country through innovation and dedication. All the Korean people who have built such a great country will confidently spread the aspiration for unification through civil movements for unification. North Korea should resume dialogues with brethren South Korea without any conditions. We continue to make efforts to integrate the domestic-global civil unification movement, along with international cooperation and support. Korean people are confident that a free and peaceful Korean unification for achieving a vision for a unified Korea will come into reality within our generation.

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■ Kyung-young CHUNG is an adjunct professor at Hanyang University’s Graduate School of International Studies.

■ Edited by: Jisoo Park, Research Associate; Chaerin Kim, Intern     

    For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr