[Commentary]
Kim Jong Un’s Strategic Calculus
vis-à-vis the Trump Administration |
Hyeong Jung Park, Emeritus Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), analyzes North Korea’s strategic outlook under Trump 2.0 and the trajectory of Kim Jong Un’s policy toward the United States. Park argues that Kim maintains deep distrust toward both Trump and the broader U.S. government, favoring a strategy that highlights diplomatic spectacle while maximizing short-term gains within a single presidential term. He further assesses that Pyongyang views strategic ties with Russia, tacit approval from China, and the weakening of Western alliance structures as creating a favorable external environment for advancing its objectives.
* Also available for download in Korean. |
[Commentary] Kim Jong Un’s Strategic Calculations Under Trump 2.0 |
Ho-ryong Lee, Senior Research Fellow at Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), underscores the disconnect between Trump-era diplomatic overtures and U.S. denuclearization policy. Lee identifies North Korea’s tripartite strategy for strengthening nuclear deterrence and assesses that the combination of an enhanced deterrent posture and deepening ties with Russia renders denuclearization increasingly improbable. In response, Lee advocates a dual-track policy for South Korea by reinforcing trilateral security cooperation with the United States and Japan while cultivating strategic relations with Russia to counterbalance North Korea’s geopolitical leverage.
* Also available for download in Korean. |
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