[Commentary] Why South Korea Must Not Go Nuclear: A Small Arsenal Won’t Pay Off Like You Think |
Yang Gyu Kim, Principal Researcher at EAI and Lecturer at Seoul National University, challenges the assumptions that nuclear weapons are essential for South Korea’s security and that even a small nuclear arsenal could effectively counter North Korea’s advancing nuclear threat. Drawing on historical lessons from the U.S.-Soviet nuclear arms race and key theoretical frameworks, such as Clausewitz’s concept of “absolute war” and Jervis’s theory of the “nuclear revolution,” Kim underscores the immense financial and geopolitical costs of pursuing independent nuclear capabilities. He highlights the difficulties of establishing mutual assured destruction, which demands a credible second-strike capability and an ensuing intense nuclear arms race. Kim concludes that nuclear armament is not a cost-effective path to ensuring peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
* Also available for download in Korean. |
[Commentary] The Prospects and Challenges of a Second Trump Administration’s Summit with North Korea |
Chaesung Chun, Chair of EAI’s National Security Research Center and Professor at Seoul National University, examines the prospects and challenges of a potential second U.S.-North Korea summit under President Trump. He notes that Trump may seek a summit to bolster his domestic political standing, potentially pursuing a “small deal” centered on limiting North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities. Meanwhile, North Korea is expected to maximize its bargaining power by leveraging U.S.-China strategic competition and its deepening ties with Russia. Chun cautions that renewed U.S.-DPRK negotiations could undermine South Korea’s strategic position and stresses the importance of developing a North Korea policy framework that remains aligned with U.S. security interests.
* Also available for download in Korean. |
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