[Global NK Newsletter] DPRK-China-Russia Partnership

  • NEWSLETTER
  • December 27, 2024

December 27, 2024

[Special Report Series]

The Present and Future of

DPRK-China-Russia Partnership

Global NK published a series of three special reports analyzing the current dynamics of the DPRK-China-Russia relationship and proposing strategic recommendations for South Korea.


Gu Ho Eom, a professor at Hanyang University, argues that while the North Korea-China-Russia partnership may appear to be strengthening, structural deficiencies in each bilateral relationship within the triangle make it unlikely to institutionalize beyond micro-level policy coordination.


Jaewoo Jun, an associate research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, highlights that despite closer ties between Moscow and Pyongyang, China's strategic leverage over Russia limits the potential for the DPRK-Russia alliance to advance significantly.


Kyungmo Ahn, a professor at the Korean National Defense University, observes that North Korea has shifted its strategy from bandwagoning to an "internal balancing strategy" focused on military self-reliance and nuclear development. He notes that trilateral cooperation is central to this approach, particularly amid the rise of global multipolarity.


*Also available for download in Korean.


[Read “The DPRK-China-Russia Triangle Under Trump 2.0”]

[Read “China’s Calculus on DPRK-Russia Alignment”]

[Read “The New Cold War and the North Korea-China-Russia Triangle”]

[Interview] Prospects for DPRK-U.S. Negotiations Under Trump 2.0

Andrew Yeo, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, outlines the potential opportunities and challenges in U.S.-DPRK relations under a second Trump administration. Yeo notes that Trump might engage more willingly in dialogue with Kim Jong Un, driven by a desire to establish his legacy by resolving the North Korean issue. In this regard, Yeo warns that Trump could agree to a suboptimal deal, possibly preserving North's nuclear status without securing any commitments to denuclearization. Additionally, Yeo observes that North Korea currently has little immediate incentive to return to negotiations with the U.S., and claims that Kim would most likely wait and see how its relationship with Russia develops and decide whether to appeal to the personal rapport with Trump again.

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