[Commentary]
Enabling Effective Coercive Diplomacy for DPRK Denuclearization |
Seong-ho Sheen, a Professor at Seoul National University, examines the theory of coercive diplomacy and its successful application in persuading Libya’s Gaddafi regime to renounce nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. Based on the literature on coercive diplomacy, he lays out the conditions for effective coercion such as proportionality, reciprocity, and credibility, and advocates for South Korea to adopt a renewed strategy toward North Korea meeting these conditions. To illustrate, Sheen recommends to focusing on policy change rather than regime change, ensuring clear and balanced reciprocity in compensation for denuclearization, and maintaining a credible threat of force if North Korea continues its defiance. |
[Video Commentary] Kim Jong Un’s Perceived Threats Behind the Forward Deployment of 250 Missile Launchers |
Won Gon Park, Chair of the EAI North Korea Studies Center, asserts that while Kim Jong Un has recently showcased North Korea's growing military capabilities by deploying 250 tactical ballistic missile launchers, this move lacks substantial military significance due to the regime's limitations in missile production capacity and nuclear command and control systems. Park argues that this action is primarily aimed at increasing defense costs for the South Korea-U.S. alliance and seeking recognition as a nuclear state. He further notes that the escalating threat from North Korea will only lead to stronger integrated deterrence and enhanced detection capabilities, thereby maintaining robust deterrence against the regime. |
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