[Commentary] The Cornerstone:
Strategic Lessons for ROK from the U.S.-Japan Summit |
Yang Gyu Kim, Principal Researcher at EAI, examines the strengthening of the U.S.-Japan alliance following the recent summit and provides insights into future foreign policy directions for South Korea. Kim emphasizes that Japan's prospective participation in AUKUS Pillar 2 and its key position in numerous U.S.-led mini- and multilateral cooperation frameworks stem from the Japanese government's active endeavors and investments in aligning its China strategy with that of the U.S. In this context, Kim suggests that South Korea should enhance its cooperation with the U.S. to meet the goals of Defense Innovation 4.0, while also proactively responding to potential opposition from China and the challenges posed by North Korea's New Cold War diplomacy.
* Also available for download in Korean.
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[Video Commentary] Kim Jong Un's ROK Invasion Scenario |
Won Gon Park, the Chair of the EAI North Korea Studies Center, predicts Kim Jong Un's potential invasion strategies for South Korea based on the site visits he made during the ROK-US Ulji Freedom Shield exercises in March. Park explores the likelihood of North Korea launching a nuclear attack, noting the envisioned scenario of an armed conflict starting at the Northern Limit Line and quickly escalating to a limited war involving low-yield nuclear weapons. Despite this, Park argues that Kim is unlikely to opt for such a self-destructive strategy that would almost certainly result in heavy losses. Nevertheless, he notes that North Korea continues to leverage its nuclear capabilities as a deterrent, aiming to prevent the U.S. and South Korea from initiating conventional warfare against it.
* English transcript available. |
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