A Path Forward on Nuclear Nonproliferation
- Video Commentary
- May 30, 2023
- William TOBEY
- Director of the Office of National Security and International Studies at Los Alamos National Laboratory
William Tobey, Director of the Office of National Security and International Studies at Los Alamos National Laboratory, assesses the current state of the global nonproliferation regime and offers an outlook for the regime. While the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has largely been stable thus far, Tobey warns that the recent series of Russia’s “vandalism” of international order and the complicity of some international actors such as China and Iran could have a far-reaching impact on the Korean Peninsula. Tobey urges like-minded states that share values such as democracy and human rights to collectively stand up against the threats to nonproliferation. This content is an excerpt from the second session of the Global NK International Conference held on May 10, 2023. The session was titled, "Building a Future Order of the Korean Peninsula: Strategic Communication, Extended Deterrence, and Cooperation for Nuclear Non-Proliferation."
I. Is the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) still viable?
• Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) has been a stable regime and a solid asset for international peace and security. While the death of NPT has been predicted many times, these predictions have been proven wrong. Yet this time may be different.
• Attack on the NPT regime will have a far-reaching impact on the Korean Peninsula. Since the 2000s, diplomacy to reverse the DPRK nuclear threat has stalled.
II. Who is threatening the future of nonproliferation?
• The world changed in February 2022 when Russia violated and vandalized the international order. Russia and China, both members of the NPT and permanent members of the UN Security Council, are evidently rethinking or already directly attacking the NPT.
• In response, however, further proliferation cannot be the answer. Like-minded countries supporting the NPT and shared values must act together. They must prepare an active defense of norms, values, and laws, and achieve more tangible defense.
III. How do we rebuild a stable nonproliferation regime?
• Extended deterrence has been the most successful nonproliferation policy in the course of history. The best evidence is shown by the difference between Poland and Ukraine. Fortunately, ROK is part of the U.S. treaty alliance and a beneficiary of U.S. extended deterrence. More work is needed bilaterally and multilaterally to fight against the threat to nonproliferation.
※ Please cite accordingly when referencing this source.
■ William Tobey is the Director of the Office of National Security and International Studies at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
■ Typeset by Jisoo Park, Research Associate
For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr
